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carlvphillips
Aug 25, 2005, 9:29 PM
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Hi. I am a professor of public health and climber (actually, I think I have to face the fact that I am an ex-climber now), and am doing some research on mortality from falls from certain heights. (As a bit of background: falls get used as a metaphor for death rates from certain other exposures in a misleading way, and I am trying to document that it is misleading.) I am trying to find out if the climbing community knows -- either in the form of lore or more careful study -- what the mortality rate is for ground falls from certain heights (pendulums into buttresses and other complications are beyond the scope).
I am particularly interested in relatively small probabilities, such as what height creates a 1% or even a 1/1000 chance of death, on up to about 25%, though I am also somewhat interested in the cutpoint for almost-100% mortality. I have found some data from the occupational health literature, but data from and about climbers is elusive, so any information would be appreciated.
Also, I realize that it makes a lot of difference how you land, what you land on, etc. I am not attempting to specify those terms, but am just letting them be part of the probability (e.g., if you die from height X if and only if you land on your head on a rock, and you land on your head on a rock 1% of the time, then that gives the 1% average mortality that I am looking for).
Thanks!
Carl V Phillips
Associate Professor, University of Alberta Department of Public Health Sciences
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shakylegs
Aug 25, 2005, 9:40 PM
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Wait, let me get some popcorn. Because this is going to get interesting.
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euthanasia
Aug 25, 2005, 9:42 PM
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I can't imagine a person surviving a fall from over 40ft
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euthanasia
Aug 25, 2005, 9:43 PM
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That's as specific as I can get
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sirdrinksalot
Aug 25, 2005, 9:53 PM
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More than once a man has stood on the ground, fell over, and died due to injuries sustained from that fall. So, I would venture to guess that even tripping over your shoelace would increase your chances of fatal injury at least .1%. Any actuaries out there?
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eellis
Aug 25, 2005, 9:53 PM
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I know Lynn Hill survived a 72 or so Footer, with minor injuries and was back climbing a few months later. (she talks about it in her book Climbing Free).
Joe Simpson survived a 130 footer, although he landed on snow (in a crevass).
Those are the biggest I know of.
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sirdrinksalot
Aug 25, 2005, 9:55 PM
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A female friend of mine fell about 30ft. and broke her back. She was walking two weeks later.
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majid_sabet
Aug 25, 2005, 9:58 PM
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I remember reading about a story of a parachute jumper falling to ground from several thousand feet without his chute opening and survived, but most cases I read related to climbing had major injuries and death, go to supertopo.com and post and see what you get, but either way keep us informed about your research.
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skinnyclimber
Aug 25, 2005, 10:53 PM
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OK who's up for being an experimental subject?
...Anyone?
"How come I have to be 45-feet-into-the-talus guy? Huh?"
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ebelay
Aug 25, 2005, 11:09 PM
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I watched a 19 year old kid deck from 100 feet. He landed on packed dirt and partly on my rope. Somehow, he lived.
He had multiple compound fractures of both legs, a very broken arm and his left foot was hanging from ligaments and a little bit of flesh with the climbing shoe still on it. There was blood and shit everywhere - it was awful. My partner and I did our best to keep him calm for nearly two hours while he screamed and faded in and out of consciousness.
I truly hope your research helps, because this is the horrible reality of what happens in groundfalls.
You never, ever get the sound out of your head.
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drector
Aug 25, 2005, 11:09 PM
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I have heard, and this is just folklore from some health care professionals a while back, is that the odds of death from a fall are directly related to the height. This was more about falling off of ladders and other industrial falls that are unexpected, not for jumping off of something and having some amount of control such as a climber might have.
10 foot fall = 10% chance of death.
50 foot fall = 50% chance of death.
100 foot fall = 100% chance of death.
... and all of the percentages in-between.
The 10% number seems wrong to me as a gut feeling but higher numbers seem like they would be fairly accurate. Try interviewing some doctors and nurses at emergency rooms instead of climbers who don't know all that much about other peoples accidents.
Dave
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euthanasia
Aug 25, 2005, 11:10 PM
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In reply to: I remember reading about a story of a parachute jumper falling to ground from several thousand feet without his chute opening and survived, but most cases I read related to climbing had major injuries and death, go to supertopo.com and post and see what you get, but either way keep us informed about your research.
You can't be serious :shock: , how the hell does a person survive a fall at terminal velocity? Did he hit water or dirt?
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marc801
Aug 25, 2005, 11:26 PM
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In reply to: You can't be serious :shock: , how the hell does a person survive a fall at terminal velocity? |
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majid_sabet
Aug 25, 2005, 11:28 PM
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This may help
----------------------------------------------
http://www.greenharbor.com/fffolder/ffresearch.html
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Malindi, Kenya: In October of 2004 Irish Guard Lt. Charlie Williams fell 3,500 feet headfirst with his feet caught in the cords of his tangled parachute. He was unable to pull his reserve. He thought he was going to die but was saved when he plunged through the corrugated roof of a well-placed hut. His injuries: three cracked vertebrae and a dislocated finger.
Christine McKenzie Carletonville, South Africa: In August of 2004 recreational skydiver Christine McKenzie jumped at 11,000 feet but her main parachute didn't open. She tried her reserve and it released, but several lines broke and it never fully deployed. As she spun toward the ground she hit some power lines, which slowed her fall. She survived with a fractured pelvic bone and some bruises. It was her 112th jump. She says she wants to jump again.
Tang Lee Ping Kuala Lumpur: In February of 2001 Tang Lee Ping of Malaysia fell 1,500 meters after her main and back-up parachutes failed to open. She woke up three hours later in a nearby hospital. Her injuries were minor (only bruises). She attributed her survival to God and a soft landing area.
Gus Bernardoni On September 17, 1944 Gus Bernardoni was a member of the 501st Parachute Infantry, which was jumping into Holland as part of the invasion. The plane lurched as he jumped and he fell into the risers and suspension lines of his parachute. In addition, two equipment bundles dropped from other planes tangled with him as he fell. He fell about 300 feet to the ground with one bundle (a 500-lb. mortar) falling on top of him. After lengthy hospitalization, Bernardoni recovered. A doctor suggested he take up golf as a therapeutic measure and today Bernardoni is well-known for his work with handicapped golfers. His book "Golf God's Way" includes a description of his accident, Bernardoni's philosophy on golf, and also stories of amputees and others who have taken up golf despite their physical handicaps.
Arch Deal Cypress Gardens, FL: In June of 1975, Arch Deal made a skydive as part of a promotional stunt for Channel 8 News. His parachute failed to open and he fell 3,000 feet into "loose soil" in an orange grove. Spectators found him there alive thirty minutes later. Deal returned to skydiving and has made 4,500 jumps since his accident, many of them as head of the Miller Brewing Company's skydiving team.
Bear Grylls South Africa: Sometime around 1999, a British soldier named Bear Grylls fell thousands of feet when his parachute failed to open properly. Three years later he became the youngest British mountaineer to reach the top of Mount Everest. He wrote about his experiences in a book called "The Kid Who Climbed Everest".
Lois Frotten Marstons Mills, MA: In July of 1962, a day after becoming engaged, Lois Frotten and her fiancé celebrated with their first skydive. Unfortunately, Frotten's foot became tangled in the rigging and her main parachute never fully opened. However at a low altitude it began to blossom and so she stopped tumbling and fell feet first into Mystic Lake. Two bystanders saw her fall and went out in a motorboat to retrieve her. By that time her jumpmaster had reached her and was there to help her into the boat. Frotten broke her nose and several vertebrae, but outside of a week in the hospital and some time in a back brace, she was fine.
Sharon McLelland Queensville, Ontario, Canada: In September of 1994, McLelland's main parachute malfunctioned and she failed to deploy her reserve. Aided by the streaming parachute and a landing in soft dirt, McLelland's first reaction was to apologize to her instructor for not using her reserve.
Joan Murray Charlotte, North Carolina: In September of 1999, Joan Murray's main parachute failed during a jump from 14,500 feet. Her reserve opened at around 700 feet, but then deflated. She landed in a mound of fire ants, whose stinging may have helped keep her heart beating. In a coma for two weeks, she was well enough to head home six weeks later. She returned to jumping in July of 2001.
Gareth Griffith Umatilla, Florida: In a tandem jump (i.e., a student and instructor jumping simultaneously) in June of 1997, Griffith pulled his ripcord at 5,500 feet, but the main chute partially failed, which triggered the reserve chute to be opened. The reserve chute tangled with part of the main chute, and despite cutting away the main chute, the reserve was never fully cleared. Griffith, the student, landed on top of Michael Costello, the instructor. Griffith survived, but Costello did not.
Carol Murray Bradford, Ontario, Canada: In 1997, Carol Murray went skydiving for the first time. Her main parachute failed and her reserve tangled in the main. She landed in rain-softened ground in someone's front yard, only feet away from the house, a tree, and the driveway. After years of rehabilitation, she is able to walk and is now working full-time.
Kevin and Beverly McIlwee Vannes, France: In May of 2001, a newlywed couple made a tandem jump from 13,000 feet. The main chute failed and became tangled in the reserve, the couple landed in grass and both suffered severe leg injuries.
Klint Freemantle Auckland, New Zealand: In August of 1993, Freemantle's main and reserve parachutes failed to open. He fell 3,600 feet and landed in a shallow duck pond. He walked away with just a small cut over his left eye.
Craig Paton Auchterarder, Perthshire, Scotland: Paton's main parachute failed and so did his reserve. He fell 3,200 feet, landed on a grassy embankment, and suffered a severe chest injury. A newspaper account estimated his speed at more than 40 miles per hour. He was put in a drug-induced coma, but was expected to survive.
Lynda Harding Lake Elsinore, California: In April of 2001 on her ninth jump, Harding's main parachute failed and her reserve tangled in her main. A newspaper account estimated that she hit the ground at 70 to 80 miles per hour. She spent a week in intensive care with a variety of injuries, but was expected to make a full recovery.
Brett Shabey Tecumseh, Michigan: In September of 1995, Schabey's main chute failed. His auxiliary opened late and he landed in a pond. A colleague swam out to help him. He survived, though he ended up in the hospital in serious condition.
Michael Cox Fort Bragg, NC: In the summer of 1977, Michael Cox was a Radio-Teletype operator in the 82nd Airborne division. Jumping with a heavy equipment bag from 1,200 feet out of a C-130, Cox hit the side of the plane and spun as he fell, which prevented his parachute from opening properly. With his parachute streaming uselessly above him, he hit the ground in a sandy area. He was knocked out for about 45 minutes, but recovered well enough to hike back to the mustering point where the company commander ordered him to do fifty push-ups for arriving late. Cox collapsed and was taken to the emergency room where he was found to have a neck fracture. He recovered and jumped again about six weeks later.
Other Examples
* Dave Clements, April 2001, probably in the United Kingdom
* Michael Vederman, August 1997, Quincy, IL
* Geoff Divco & Jerome Rich, January 1997, Corowa, Australia
* Rob Lock, September 1996, probably in the United Kingdom
* Jill Shields, May 1991, Geauga County, Ohio
* Darren Weber, March 1991, Muskogie, OK
* G.B. Booth, 1940, probably in England
* Eddie Szula, late 1930s/early 1940s, probably in the United States (see Other Amazing Stories)
* Lt. "Bugs" Fisher, 1924, Lake Michigan
* Dragan Curcic, October 2002, eastern Europe, probably Serbia (see Incident Log)
* Cliff Judkins, June 1963, Pacific Ocean (see Other Amazing Stories)
* Michael Gifford, June 2002, near Davis, CA
* Glenn Hood, June 2002, Jarvis Lake, western Alberta Canada (see Incident Log)
* Paul Delaney, July 1998, Wainwright (near Calgary, Alberta, Canada)
* Bren Jones, December 1997?, Lincolnshire, eastern England
* S D Magidela, September 2002, South Africa (see Incident Log)
* David Clements, April 2001, Coventry, England
Unlucky? Well, yes, but at least their parachutes worked...
There is also a group of unlucky skydivers who were unlucky in a different way. Their parachutes worked, but something else went terribly wrong.
* Leon Sebek: In August of 2002 Leon Sebek was on the wing spar of a Cessna 182 waiting to jump when his main parachute deployed prematurely. The open parachute slammed him against the horizontal stabilizer. Under the open parachute he fell unconscious and landed in a quarry. It took searchers eight hours to find him. Due to his head injuries, he was in a coma until September but had recovered well enough to return home by December.
* William Rankin: In 1959, Lt. Col. William Rankin was flying at 47,000 feet when he had to eject from his F8U jet over Norfolk, Virginia due to an engine failure. He parachuted into the middle of a severe thunderstorm that carried him over 65 miles to Rich Square, North Carolina. The trip took over 40 minutes.
* Didier Dahran: In May of 1993, Frenchman Didier Dahran parachuted at 1,000 feet and was caught in a cyclone that lifted him to 25,000 feet. His first parachute collapsed at that point and he used his reserve to descend to earth some 30 miles from where he started. The incident happened in the vicinity of Boulac, France.
* Mathieu Gagnon: In June of 2002, Gagnon was sucked into a dark storm cloud while parachuting in Ontario and was pulled up by the storm. After rising 1,000 meters, he cut away his main parachute and fell out of the clouds. Using his reserve he came down about 25 kilometers south of the airfield where he was supposed to land.
* Alan Peters: While skydiving in western Massachusetts in November of 1993, Alan Peters was free-falling when he struck the vertical stabilizer of a plane flying below. This caused the plane to spin out of control and crash, killing all four people aboard. The collision broke Peters' ankle, but he was able to open his parachute and land safely.
* Dana Bowman: In February of 1994 while practicing a two-man maneuver for the U.S. Army Golden Knights, Sgt. First Class Dana Bowman collided with his partner, Sgt. Jose Aguillon. They were moving toward each other so quickly that Aguillon's arm sheered off Bowman's legs, one leg above the knee and the other below the knee. Bowman's parachute opened and he survived. Aguillon's automatic opening device deployed his parachute, but it was too late to save him.
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tangen_foster
Aug 25, 2005, 11:29 PM
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In reply to: In reply to: I remember reading about a story of a parachute jumper falling to ground from several thousand feet without his chute opening and survived, but most cases I read related to climbing had major injuries and death, go to supertopo.com and post and see what you get, but either way keep us informed about your research. You can't be serious :shock: , how the hell does a person survive a fall at terminal velocity? Did he hit water or dirt?
I remember hearing about this too...he landed prone, completely flat on his stomach and broke his nose.
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majid_sabet
Aug 25, 2005, 11:35 PM
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The highest one I know is 33000 Feet, here is the story
http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/content_pages/record.asp?recordid=43941
Highest Fall Survived Without A Parachute
Vesna Vulovic, a flight attendant from Yugoslavia, survived a fall from 10,160 m (33,330 ft) when the DC-9 airplane she was traveling in blew up over Czechoslovakia (now Czech Republic), on January 26, 1972. A terrorist bomb was thought to be the cause, and no other passengers survived. Vesna broke both legs and was temporarily paralyzed from the waist down.
Vesna remembers nothing, but later learned that a former nurse, Bruno Henke, saw Vesna's legs sticking out of the fuselage. Bruno cleared Vesna's airways before rushing her to hospital. Three days later she awoke from a coma in a hospital in Ceska, Karmenice.
She says, "I was so lucky to have survived! I hit the earth – not the trees, not the snow, but the frozen ground." Strangely, the first words she uttered, "Can I have a cigarette," were in English!
Luckily, she suffered no psychological trauma, and no fear of flying. Prevented from returning to her job, she forged a new career in administration. "I was able to fly over the world for free," she says. Her experience has helped her form a philosophical attitude towards life. "I believe we are masters of our lives - we hold all the cards and it is up to us to use them right."
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theishofoz
Aug 25, 2005, 11:39 PM
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i have heard that a base jumper jumped the camtian and her chute didnt deploy and when she hit, it set off car alarms in the valley
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ambler
Aug 25, 2005, 11:41 PM
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In reply to: I can't imagine a person surviving a fall from over 40ft
From http://www.truthsearcher.com/AbnFacts.htm
"Lieutenant I. M. Chisov of the former Soviet Union was flying his Ilyushin 4 on a bitter cold day in January 1942, when it was attacked by 12 German Messerschmitts. Convinced that he had no chance of surviving if he staged with his badly battered plane, Chisov bailed out at 21,980 feet. With the fighters still buzzing around, Chisov cleverly decided to fall freely out of the arena. It was his plan not to open his chute until he was down to only 1000 ft above the ground. Unfortunately, he lost consciousness en route. As luck would have it, he crashed at the edge of a steep ravine covered with 3 ft of snow. Hitting at about 120 mi/h, he plowed along its slope until he came to rest at the bottom. Chisov awoke 20 min later, bruised and sore, but miraclously he had suffered only a concussion of the spine and a fractured pelvis. Three and one-half months later he was back at work as a flight instructor." Hecht, Eugene. Physics: Calculus. 2nd ed. United States: Brooks/Cole, 2000. p 85
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euthanasia
Aug 25, 2005, 11:47 PM
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That has to be a freakin crazy feeling to have fallen 33000ft and survived. Go to school and people ask you what you did over summer break. Umm, I fell 33000ft out of a plane without a parachute :roll: no biggy
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majid_sabet
Aug 25, 2005, 11:50 PM
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I saw few photos of few climbers falling very long distance to the ground , I am sure you guys do not want to know how things looked. Professor, are you done with this subject ?
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moose_droppings
Aug 26, 2005, 12:02 AM
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I survived a 45 ft fall. Spent 3 days in intensive care for broken shoulder blade, bruised lung, head conconsion, 2 broken ribs, and almost tore my thumb off(metal pins holding together now). 1974 or 75. BTW its a hoot to go thru the metal detecters, sometimes i tell em, if their jerks i wait till they come over with a wand.
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acrofobic
Aug 26, 2005, 12:58 AM
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Yosemite 73. I'm on helitack. Walk in ledge at base of el cap. Small fir tree (4 feet tall) everyone uses to hold onto while they swing past a narrow spot. Climber finished climb, walking out on ledge, no helmet. small tree pulls out. climber falls 8 feet hits head on lower ledge. NO HELMET. Dead. I was on the carry out.
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ajkclay
Aug 26, 2005, 1:03 AM
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Hi Carl,
bear with them, it's like trying to communicate with a gaggle of geese sometimes. It will take a while before some understand what you're after. :roll:
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't you want information about falls that climbers taken that we as climbers know of, and information about whether the person lived or died?
Also, I get the impression that you want data from all heights, and not just the highest we have heard about, with a greater interest in mortality rates up to about 25%?
Okay, here's mine. All bona fide by trusted individuals, or witnessed by me.
Falls from 2m:
total: in excess of 100, deaths 0
Falls from 3m:
total: 5, deaths 0
Falls from 4m:
total: 1, deaths 0
Falls from 15m:
total: 1, deaths 0 (badly injured though)
Falls from 20m:
total: 1, deaths 0 (badly injured)
^^^These are ones I know for sure.
Dodgy data:
There have been 2 falls resulting in death from the top of a cllimb called Muesli (Adelaide South Australia) in the last couple of years that I am aware of; the height is 18m, but both of those individuals were not climbers, just people out for a walk, so the absence of mitigating factors provided by gear may skew that data a bit, making it irrelevant.
Also, there have been a couple of deaths on D-minor at Arapiles, I am not sure of the details, or even if they fell all the way to the ground. They would most likely have fallen from near the top, which is 35m up, the crux is 3m below this, so falls from about 32m; there's a ledge 3m below this point, so it could also be that they fell 3m. Details are sketchy, sorry.
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alter_nate
Aug 26, 2005, 1:52 AM
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Professor,
You may already have this data, but for what it's worth, see this post from another forum:
http://www.supertopo.com/climbing/thread.html?topic_id=49651#msg49651http://
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squish
Aug 26, 2005, 2:29 AM
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height:................10'...20'...30'...40'...50'...60'...70'...80'...90'..100'..110'
% probability of:
limb fracture:......41 ...63 ...70 ...76 ...80 ...82 ...85 ...88 ...90 ..93 ...94
spine fracture:......5 ...10 ...13 ...16 ...20 ...23 ...27 ...29 ...31 ..33 ...35
death:..................2 ....7 ...12 ...21 ...35 ...49 ...62 ...74 ...83 ...92 ...95
Wow, that's amazing. I'm really surprised that the figure for 110 foot falls isn't closer to 100%. I mean, 95% means that 1 out of 20 people survive... I would have expected far fewer!
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