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How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election?
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Poll: How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election?
Help Obama 3 / 43%
Help Romney 0 / 0%
Who the fuck cares? I'm just glad to see the press covering something other than the political horserace. 4 / 57%
7 total votes
 

scrapedape


Oct 30, 2012, 7:03 AM
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How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election?
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Well?


Gmburns2000


Oct 30, 2012, 8:11 AM
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Re: [scrapedape] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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D - neither.

Hurricanes that hit the northeast aren't nearly as damaging as those that hit the south. This is a storm worth talking about, but it's nothing compared to the nor'easters that hit every winter.

In other words, it's a non-issue.


scrapedape


Oct 30, 2012, 9:20 AM
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Re: [Gmburns2000] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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Gmburns2000 wrote:
D - neither.

Hurricanes that hit the northeast aren't nearly as damaging as those that hit the south. This is a storm worth talking about, but it's nothing compared to the nor'easters that hit every winter.

In other words, it's a non-issue.

This was true in Massachusetts. Not so much in NY, NJ, PA.


Partner happiegrrrl


Oct 30, 2012, 9:26 AM
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Re: [scrapedape] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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I worry that some people won't be physically able to vote, and being that most of the northeast leans toward Democrat, that could adversely affect things.

I don't think the reprieve we are getting from political media coverage is a bad thing. Most people are decided about who they hope will win, who they intend to cast a ballot for. The minutiae of He said/He said is not really necessary (though of course I am glad that the "47%" news thing didn't occur yesterday - hahah).

But - most important is that people who are struggling with damage, and in some cases loss of the life of a loved one, get the support they need, and I think both presidential candidates ought to be focused on that.


Gmburns2000


Oct 30, 2012, 9:44 AM
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Re: [scrapedape] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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scrapedape wrote:
Gmburns2000 wrote:
D - neither.

Hurricanes that hit the northeast aren't nearly as damaging as those that hit the south. This is a storm worth talking about, but it's nothing compared to the nor'easters that hit every winter.

In other words, it's a non-issue.

This was true in Massachusetts. Not so much in NY, NJ, PA.

this storm didn't change how people will vote in those states. maybe what Terrie said could be true, but life will be closer to being back to normal in a week.

Bush got re-elected after Katrina. I don't think Sandy will have an effect.


scrapedape


Oct 30, 2012, 10:53 AM
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Re: [Gmburns2000] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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Gmburns2000 wrote:
scrapedape wrote:
Gmburns2000 wrote:
D - neither.

Hurricanes that hit the northeast aren't nearly as damaging as those that hit the south. This is a storm worth talking about, but it's nothing compared to the nor'easters that hit every winter.

In other words, it's a non-issue.

This was true in Massachusetts. Not so much in NY, NJ, PA.

this storm didn't change how people will vote in those states. maybe what Terrie said could be true, but life will be closer to being back to normal in a week.

Bush got re-elected after Katrina. I don't think Sandy will have an effect.

Actually, Bush got re-elected (2004) before Katrina (2005).

And, there is evidence that people's votes are affected by things that are beyond politicians' control, even things that are totally irrelevant from a political standpoint. e.g.:

http://www.pnas.org/.../12804.full.pdf+html

In reply to:
Does information irrelevant to government performance affect
voting behavior? If so, how does this help us understand the
mechanisms underlying votersí retrospective assessments of candidatesí
performance in office? To precisely test for the effects of irrelevant
information, we explore the electoral impact of local college
football games just before an election, irrelevant events that government
has nothing to dowith and forwhich no government response
would be expected.Wefindthat a win in the 10d before ElectionDay
causes the incumbent to receive an additional 1.61 percentage points
of the vote in Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential elections,
with
the effect being larger for teams with stronger fan support. In addition
to conducting placebo tests based on postelection games, we
demonstrate these effects by using the betting marketís estimate
of a teamís probability of winning the gamebefore it occurs to isolate
the surprise component of game outcomes. We corroborate these
aggregate-level results with a survey that we conducted during the
2009NCAAmenís college basketball tournament,wherewefindthat
surprising wins and losses affect presidential approval. An experiment
embedded within the survey also indicates that personal
well-being may influence voting decisions on a subconscious level.
We find that making people more aware of the reasons for their
current state of mind reduces the effect that irrelevant events have
on their opinions. These findings underscore the subtle power of
irrelevant events in shaping important real-world decisions and suggest
ways in which decision making can be improved.


With that said, I think the bigger potential effect here is on voter turnout. I doubt that it will swing the electoral college, since the most severely affected states are pretty solidly blue, but there are two interesting possibilities that I can envision:

(1) PA is currently running about 49/45 for Obama. If the storm disproportionately depresses turnout in (blue) southeastern PA, could that be enough to tip the state to Romney?
(2) The storm has no effect on the electoral college, and Obama happens to be the winner. But due to depressed voter turnout in PA, NY, NJ, CT, the nationwide popular vote tips to Romney.


curt


Oct 30, 2012, 11:00 AM
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Re: [scrapedape] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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scrapedape wrote:
With that said, I think the bigger potential effect here is on voter turnout. I doubt that it will swing the electoral college, since the most severely affected states are pretty solidly blue, but there are two interesting possibilities that I can envision:

(1) PA is currently running about 49/45 for Obama. If the storm disproportionately depresses turnout in (blue) southeastern PA, could that be enough to tip the state to Romney?

(2) The storm has no effect on the electoral college, and Obama happens to be the winner. But due to depressed voter turnout in PA, NY, NJ, CT, the nationwide popular vote tips to Romney.

Or, how about

(3) The storm depresses turnout equally between Democrats and Republicans, making the early voting (supposedly favoring Obama) proportionally more significant.

But, that's just one more guess. Realistically, I think there are too many variables to predict what the real impact will be.

Curt


Gmburns2000


Oct 30, 2012, 11:29 AM
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Re: [curt] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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curt wrote:
scrapedape wrote:
With that said, I think the bigger potential effect here is on voter turnout. I doubt that it will swing the electoral college, since the most severely affected states are pretty solidly blue, but there are two interesting possibilities that I can envision:

(1) PA is currently running about 49/45 for Obama. If the storm disproportionately depresses turnout in (blue) southeastern PA, could that be enough to tip the state to Romney?

(2) The storm has no effect on the electoral college, and Obama happens to be the winner. But due to depressed voter turnout in PA, NY, NJ, CT, the nationwide popular vote tips to Romney.

Or, how about

(3) The storm depresses turnout equally between Democrats and Republicans, making the early voting (supposedly favoring Obama) proportionally more significant.

But, that's just one more guess. Realistically, I think there are too many variables to predict what the real impact will be.

Curt

This. Anything else is just wild speculation, and anything after the fact is wild conspiracy theory.


petsfed


Oct 30, 2012, 8:19 PM
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Re: [Gmburns2000] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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Gmburns2000 wrote:
curt wrote:
Or, how about

(3) The storm depresses turnout equally between Democrats and Republicans, making the early voting (supposedly favoring Obama) proportionally more significant.

But, that's just one more guess. Realistically, I think there are too many variables to predict what the real impact will be.

Curt

This. Anything else is just wild speculation, and anything after the fact is wild conspiracy theory.

Well, there is the increased risk that Romney will double-back on his previous position of not supporting FEMA, but other than that, I'm no fortune teller.


atg200


Oct 30, 2012, 9:00 PM
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curt


Oct 30, 2012, 9:01 PM
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Re: [petsfed] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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petsfed wrote:
Gmburns2000 wrote:
curt wrote:
Or, how about

(3) The storm depresses turnout equally between Democrats and Republicans, making the early voting (supposedly favoring Obama) proportionally more significant.

But, that's just one more guess. Realistically, I think there are too many variables to predict what the real impact will be.

Curt

This. Anything else is just wild speculation, and anything after the fact is wild conspiracy theory.

Well, there is the increased risk that Romney will double-back on his previous position of not supporting FEMA, but other than that, I'm no fortune teller.

From today's Chicago Tribune

Chicago Tribune wrote:

Mitt's team scrambles with aftermath of FEMA comment and 'Romnesia'

Words have a way of coming back to haunt Mitt Romney, especially when he says them in front of television cameras.

As the nation braced itself for Hurricane Sandy to slam into the East Coast, Romney's campaign was busily issuing denials to clean up an impression left by last year's "severely conservative" Romney long before he recently was replaced by Moderate Mitt.

No, Team Romney insisted, their candidate does not really want to abolish the Federal Emergency Management Agency, even if his words make him sound like he does.

Confusing? Hey, we're talking about the newly restored Moderate Mitt, the candidate whose beliefs are like Chicago's weather: If you don't like 'em, just wait a few minutes...

Curt


veganclimber


Oct 30, 2012, 9:08 PM
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Re: [curt] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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I might just be cynical, but it almost seems like Mitt is the type of guy who will just say whatever it is he thinks you want to hear.


Gmburns2000


Oct 31, 2012, 3:34 AM
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Re: [atg200] How will Hurricane Sandy affect the US presidential election? [In reply to]
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atg200 wrote:
Gmburns2000 wrote:
D - neither.

Hurricanes that hit the northeast aren't nearly as damaging as those that hit the south. This is a storm worth talking about, but it's nothing compared to the nor'easters that hit every winter.

In other words, it's a non-issue.

You can't be this oblivious - can you? Nothing compared to a nor'easter?

OK, so it's more than that, but really, hurricanes are usually more manageable in the northeast than a nor'easter is. Shit, the Blizzard of '78 only dropped 27 inches and look how infamous that turned out to be. Now that was a hurricane made for the northeast.

I'm really not downplaying the aftermath of the storm, but the people who are comparing this to Katrina (and yes, I've actually read that a few times already) are crazy. I'm sure most polling stations will up and ready to go next Tuesday, even if 100% of people don't have power yet.


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