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The End of the Republican Party
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Toast_in_the_Machine


Apr 23, 2013, 7:34 AM
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Registered: Sep 11, 2008
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The End of the Republican Party
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So while driving back from RRG (shhh…. I actually sometimes climb, please keep it quiet) my wife and I had a continuing conversation on the nature of the Republican party (it was a long, long ride), and I’ve come to the conclusion that it is over. The party will soon join the Wigs in the dustbin of history. (And by soon I mean about 6-10 years). This will cause several problems until a new “right wing” party emerges, but it will not be until after the current one has been buried. Here is my case as to why the Republican Party is doomed.

I tend to look at everything from an economic standpoint. I’m always wondering where the money comes from and what the incentives are. As I look at the GOP, I wonder “where are the new recruits coming from” (where the money comes from seems obvious, but more on that later). The first place is obviously the children of current members. That much will work, but it creates a losing numbers game. If people are only born into your party (or faith) and do nothing but leave it, you would need to sustain a very large reproductive rate in order to have your party grown, and currently that isn’t happening for the GOP (even with the anti-women’s reproductive rights push). Ultimately any party must recruit new members who are unfamiliar with the details of the philosophy and the GOP is unable to do this.

The GOP has spent the past 40 years perfecting the “dog whistle” strategy. For those unfamiliar with this, it is the strategy whereby code words are used with a group which excites your side without being obvious enough for the other side to hear. From “Willy Horton” (to racists) to “Swift Boats” (to war mongers) this strategy has proved time and time again as an effective tool for the GOP in politics. That is the problem; it is now the only tool that works. It only works with the base; it doesn’t attract people outside of the base. In fact, if the “dog whistle” is ever so slightly too low, the opposite side ears it and it drives people away. Todd “Legitimate Rape” found that out. He was only saying what was in the party platform. Only he didn’t code it well enough so that the voters reacted with appropriate disgust. You can’t run on slogans that are both dog whistles and attract people outside of the flock.

Because of this push and because of the RINO (Republican In Name Only) tag to push out people who were once in the party out but are not pure with the faith, the GOP has steadily moved to the right. But it can’t move back to the left. The efficiency and effectiveness of the dog whistles within the party mean that for primaries, only those that meet the exact standards of the fundamentalist core will run in the general election. But in the general election, unless the fundamentalist core is the majority (as it is in many states) the GOP cannot win because it cannot attract independent voters. Independent voters don’t respond to candidates who only speak in their party’s code. So as fewer and fewer people hold to the parties pure line so do fewer and fewer people vote for the GOP.

There is a tipping point for the GOP: Money. Sure, some money will always be for the GOP on principle alone, however, most money is cynical money. It is money for “access”. Once the perception locks in, probably after the next presidential cycle, that the GOP is a permanent minority party, then the corporate money will flee the party. That will be the collapse, that will be then the drive to form a new right wing party and that the tea party members of the GOP can go form their own party. You can see this in the party elite version of what went wrong with the last election – the desire is to place more pre-approved people into the general election. Unfortunately, it won’t work. The core is too strong and too dedicated to themselves. The other problem is that since the Democratic party has been nominating moderate Republicans for president (Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama), unless the Democrats lurch to the left that leads (not follows) the current swing then there is no moderate area to grab. All the GOP has is the fundamentalist right, and the fundamentalist right doesn’t share power. It can’t share power; it believes it is right and appointed by God. And those people are not the majority in America right now and will never be again.

Since the right can’t articulate ideas and can only thump the bible / constitution, they can’t expand. The gun control “debate” was a perfect example of this. There was nothing from the right except the words “second amendment”. Was there a suggestion for how to control gun violence? No. Not a one. Was there an articulate argument about the balance between the first amendment (violent video games), the fifth amendment (public lists of gun owners), and the second? No. There was only saying “second amendment, second amendment, second amendment” over and over again. The problem with that is that it only works for the people already in the flock. It doesn’t convince an independent bystander. More people today want some form of gun control not just because of the reaction to the crimes, but because the right articulated no reason not to. While no legislation got passed, the Obama won on politics – more people now are sympathetic with his position and are more likely to vote with his party in the next election. Sure the same old GOP base is just as excited as ever about gun control, but unless new people join the party, they minority status just got locked in a little tighter.

The last reason that the GOP is losing is because they are racist. Sure not everyone in the GOP is racist and yes there are racist Democrats, but when you look at the policies of the GOP the disproportionately hurt people whose skin isn’t white. There is no “tweaking” the message, there is no “softening the tone” the era of the “compassionate conservative” is over. No action was taken, the message is clear. If you are not white and uptight, you should be out of sight in the GOP. The Democrats know this and if you watch Texas you will see that the blood is in the water. The Latino vote in Texas has been suppressed historically. Now the push is on to get out the vote for more and more Latinos. When asked why they never voted, they have been answering “because you never asked”. As the Democrats begin to engage and connect, you will see Texas, the reddest of the red, be back into play. If Texas turns blue, and it could, then it is game over for the GOP and presidential politics. While the national party is no longer the “self-deportation” party, the local party is still pushing policies that hurt the darker members of our society. And look at the demographics of the GOP Tea Party: Southern, white, and old. These are the same people who in their 20’s were screaming against integration in the 60’s. They are still alive (barely), you didn’t think those people changed their views did you?

Can the GOP survive? Sure, but they most likely won’t. They have self-selected themselves to be a group of people who can only associated with themselves. Unless there is a sudden realization that to win as the GOP you can’t be the GOP, but that can’t happen because then they wouldn’t be the GOP, then the GOP will slowly devolve into an echo chamber of noise as their members die of old age. And frankly, since now all they offer is their dog whistles, then good riddance. I await the re-birth of the right, one that has ideas, makes cogent arguments, and reacts to facts. Until then, good riddance to the GOP.


wjca


May 3, 2013, 12:02 PM
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Registered: Jan 27, 2005
Posts: 7533

Re: [Toast_in_the_Machine] The End of the Republican Party [In reply to]
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TLDR.


Partner macherry


May 3, 2013, 6:36 PM
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Registered: Sep 10, 2003
Posts: 15774

Re: [wjca] The End of the Republican Party [In reply to]
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wjca wrote:
TLDR.

look who's here


Khoi


May 4, 2013, 11:20 PM
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Registered: Apr 10, 2008
Posts: 292

Re: [Toast_in_the_Machine] The End of the Republican Party [In reply to]
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Toast_in_the_Machine wrote:
So while driving back from RRG (shhh…. I actually sometimes climb, please keep it quiet) my wife and I had a continuing conversation on the nature of the Republican party (it was a long, long ride), and I’ve come to the conclusion that it is over. The party will soon join the Wigs in the dustbin of history. (And by soon I mean about 6-10 years). This will cause several problems until a new “right wing” party emerges, but it will not be until after the current one has been buried. Here is my case as to why the Republican Party is doomed.

I tend to look at everything from an economic standpoint. I’m always wondering where the money comes from and what the incentives are. As I look at the GOP, I wonder “where are the new recruits coming from” (where the money comes from seems obvious, but more on that later). The first place is obviously the children of current members. That much will work, but it creates a losing numbers game. If people are only born into your party (or faith) and do nothing but leave it, you would need to sustain a very large reproductive rate in order to have your party grown, and currently that isn’t happening for the GOP (even with the anti-women’s reproductive rights push). Ultimately any party must recruit new members who are unfamiliar with the details of the philosophy and the GOP is unable to do this.

The GOP has spent the past 40 years perfecting the “dog whistle” strategy. For those unfamiliar with this, it is the strategy whereby code words are used with a group which excites your side without being obvious enough for the other side to hear. From “Willy Horton” (to racists) to “Swift Boats” (to war mongers) this strategy has proved time and time again as an effective tool for the GOP in politics. That is the problem; it is now the only tool that works. It only works with the base; it doesn’t attract people outside of the base. In fact, if the “dog whistle” is ever so slightly too low, the opposite side ears it and it drives people away. Todd “Legitimate Rape” found that out. He was only saying what was in the party platform. Only he didn’t code it well enough so that the voters reacted with appropriate disgust. You can’t run on slogans that are both dog whistles and attract people outside of the flock.

Because of this push and because of the RINO (Republican In Name Only) tag to push out people who were once in the party out but are not pure with the faith, the GOP has steadily moved to the right. But it can’t move back to the left. The efficiency and effectiveness of the dog whistles within the party mean that for primaries, only those that meet the exact standards of the fundamentalist core will run in the general election. But in the general election, unless the fundamentalist core is the majority (as it is in many states) the GOP cannot win because it cannot attract independent voters. Independent voters don’t respond to candidates who only speak in their party’s code. So as fewer and fewer people hold to the parties pure line so do fewer and fewer people vote for the GOP.

There is a tipping point for the GOP: Money. Sure, some money will always be for the GOP on principle alone, however, most money is cynical money. It is money for “access”. Once the perception locks in, probably after the next presidential cycle, that the GOP is a permanent minority party, then the corporate money will flee the party. That will be the collapse, that will be then the drive to form a new right wing party and that the tea party members of the GOP can go form their own party. You can see this in the party elite version of what went wrong with the last election – the desire is to place more pre-approved people into the general election. Unfortunately, it won’t work. The core is too strong and too dedicated to themselves. The other problem is that since the Democratic party has been nominating moderate Republicans for president (Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama), unless the Democrats lurch to the left that leads (not follows) the current swing then there is no moderate area to grab. All the GOP has is the fundamentalist right, and the fundamentalist right doesn’t share power. It can’t share power; it believes it is right and appointed by God. And those people are not the majority in America right now and will never be again.

Since the right can’t articulate ideas and can only thump the bible / constitution, they can’t expand. The gun control “debate” was a perfect example of this. There was nothing from the right except the words “second amendment”. Was there a suggestion for how to control gun violence? No. Not a one. Was there an articulate argument about the balance between the first amendment (violent video games), the fifth amendment (public lists of gun owners), and the second? No. There was only saying “second amendment, second amendment, second amendment” over and over again. The problem with that is that it only works for the people already in the flock. It doesn’t convince an independent bystander. More people today want some form of gun control not just because of the reaction to the crimes, but because the right articulated no reason not to. While no legislation got passed, the Obama won on politics – more people now are sympathetic with his position and are more likely to vote with his party in the next election. Sure the same old GOP base is just as excited as ever about gun control, but unless new people join the party, they minority status just got locked in a little tighter.

The last reason that the GOP is losing is because they are racist. Sure not everyone in the GOP is racist and yes there are racist Democrats, but when you look at the policies of the GOP the disproportionately hurt people whose skin isn’t white. There is no “tweaking” the message, there is no “softening the tone” the era of the “compassionate conservative” is over. No action was taken, the message is clear. If you are not white and uptight, you should be out of sight in the GOP. The Democrats know this and if you watch Texas you will see that the blood is in the water. The Latino vote in Texas has been suppressed historically. Now the push is on to get out the vote for more and more Latinos. When asked why they never voted, they have been answering “because you never asked”. As the Democrats begin to engage and connect, you will see Texas, the reddest of the red, be back into play. If Texas turns blue, and it could, then it is game over for the GOP and presidential politics. While the national party is no longer the “self-deportation” party, the local party is still pushing policies that hurt the darker members of our society. And look at the demographics of the GOP Tea Party: Southern, white, and old. These are the same people who in their 20’s were screaming against integration in the 60’s. They are still alive (barely), you didn’t think those people changed their views did you?

Can the GOP survive? Sure, but they most likely won’t. They have self-selected themselves to be a group of people who can only associated with themselves. Unless there is a sudden realization that to win as the GOP you can’t be the GOP, but that can’t happen because then they wouldn’t be the GOP, then the GOP will slowly devolve into an echo chamber of noise as their members die of old age. And frankly, since now all they offer is their dog whistles, then good riddance. I await the re-birth of the right, one that has ideas, makes cogent arguments, and reacts to facts. Until then, good riddance to the GOP.

I eagerly look forward to the GOP becoming increasingly impotent, thereby mirroring the increasing impotence of its base of old white males.


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