After climbing this about 8 years ago, I finally came back to give it another try on top-rope. I previously thought it impossible, and previously thought the right flake was off-route. I have now decided the flake is fair game, and that if you wire the moves, it could be possible! :) I agree that the crux is at about bolt #2 (unless you don't use the flake, in which case the 3rd and 4th bolts are the crux at about 12b, would be my guess).
Way hard lead; would like to have redpoint by the end of this summer, but unlikely. Up to the 2nd bolt isn't that bad, probably only 10.d/11.a. The only section we still can't free is between the 2nd the 3rd bolts; you must go from face crimps to nothing and have to get high left into a really thin seem with your left hand. Freakin' balancy and desperate if you ask me.