|
|
Forums:
Climbing Information:
Accident and Incident Analysis:
Re: [ClimbClimb] Climbing gym disaster:
Edit Log
|
|
jt512
Apr 26, 2010, 10:09 PM
Views: 8015
Registered: Apr 12, 2001
Posts: 21904
|
ClimbClimb wrote: jt512 wrote: ClimbClimb wrote: Now, your risk of hitting the ground is 50% * b + 100% * b (making a minor approximation).You have failed to take into consideration that your belayer can only lower you if he hasn't already failed to catch you on a fall. ... I did not fail. I made the minor approximation, which I noted above. This and the other point you mention are unlikely to make a big difference in the final outcomes. I would be glad to do the full math out for you, but I think it'll really nerd everyone else out.
Well, in my humble opinion, you did not "make a minor approximation." You made a major mistake, leading to mathematically impossible results. As I stated above, your approach can lead to "probabilities" exceeding 1, which are nonsensical. If you want to "do the full math for me," please do, although I think I actually did it for you in my previous post.
Jay
(This post was edited by jt512 on Apr 26, 2010, 10:25 PM)
|
|
|
Edit Log:
|
|
Post edited by jt512
() on Apr 26, 2010, 10:10 PM
|
|
Post edited by jt512
() on Apr 26, 2010, 10:25 PM
|
|
|
|
|
|
